tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-898703789069481101.post5271643604630548403..comments2023-07-08T06:28:16.989-07:00Comments on Mighty Vision: LuckBroghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14185464573529387638noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-898703789069481101.post-67684945763179494682013-12-19T06:40:13.985-08:002013-12-19T06:40:13.985-08:00I think another thing to think about with luck in ...I think another thing to think about with luck in games is the curve at which it is appealing to different target audiences. For instance, coin flip board games for kids, or non-investment players and/or first time players. The high luck, low strategy works great for those markets and puts everyone on an even playing field. This type of game is especially frustrating for strategic players, especially hardcore strategy gamers like Chess players (zero luck involved and all the information is on the board). In-between the two extremes you have the casual players, to the more committed players and there is a market for each group. I found this blog post extremely useful because it is a very important question for game developers and players to understand when playing games and making games. William Hessianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12091165616820244881noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-898703789069481101.post-28929589011931838902013-12-08T23:23:16.631-08:002013-12-08T23:23:16.631-08:00It's very easy to mistake adaptability and str...It's very easy to mistake adaptability and strategic planning with luck. I noticed this when I started playing Carcassone and I won almost every game with my friends. The issue is that I probably knew the set of tiles better than them and so I was able to rebuild my strategy upon the tiles in my hand and the tiles that were not in game yet. When a tile appears and it seemed to fit perfectly everyone said I was extremely lucky but I was just being adaptive and flexible.<br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04484653158729185708noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-898703789069481101.post-66735604177799605192013-11-07T12:53:39.153-08:002013-11-07T12:53:39.153-08:00Thank you for this interesting note on luck.
Afte...Thank you for this interesting note on luck.<br /><br />After your first bullet "the more random events occur, the more likely the overall distribution is to average out to something not very random at all" I'd like to add that this can be true in a surprising way.<br /><br />For example, with a random walk in one dimension (consider two player snakes and ladders without snakes or ladders and a single die yielding one or zero) both the following are true:<br /><br />1. You win half the time (excluding draws). This follows because your expectation of advantage over your opponent is zero.<br /><br />2. If you are ahead, the distance between the players is most likely to grow, in the long run. (Accumulated randomness makes no effort to equalize, or to make fair the situation). <br /><br />Reference: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_walk#One-dimensional_random_walk<br /><br />And the phenomena you describe in your last bullet point is normally termed regression to the mean: <br /><br />https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_meanMartin Hollishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05023742246822724090noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-898703789069481101.post-21824721088027436852013-11-07T11:44:25.601-08:002013-11-07T11:44:25.601-08:00Really interesting thoughts. I've always had a...Really interesting thoughts. I've always had a love-hate relationship with luck in games, but I've never quite understood when or why I liked it and when I didn't. This clears up some things in my head.<br /><br />I especially agree with the idea that increasing the amount of times that a random event occurs decreases frustration. Mechquest (an overall bad game, don't waste time on trying it) has long missions, where in order to beat it, you have to roll in the very end, and if you roll too low, you lose the entire mission or don't get the loot that you needed. Extremely frustrating. Whereas games like Spelunky or 868-HACK increases the amount of random events involved and thereby decreases the frustration.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com